Federal Spending Trends
Federal prime-contract obligations by fiscal year
FY2026 obligations (Oct 2025–Sep 2026, provisional; DoD awards signed after July 16, 2026 are not yet public) · as of October 14, 2026
Federal agencies obligated $787.44B in prime contracts in FY2026 (provisional), across 4,620,989 awards and orders with an obligation action in the year. That is down 0.9% from FY2025 (the FY2026 figure will rise as withheld DoD awards are published). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from FY2022 to FY2026 is +3.2%, computed over completed fiscal years only.
| Fiscal year | Net obligations | Awards and orders | Change vs prior FY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 (provisional) | $787.44B | 4,620,989 | −0.9% |
| FY2025 | $794.19B | 5,721,500 | +4.9% |
| FY2024 | $757.34B | 5,806,521 | −0.6% |
| FY2023 | $761.86B | 5,815,771 | +9.7% |
| FY2022 | $694.26B | 5,749,882 |
Source: Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS-NG) prime-contract transactions distributed through USAspending.gov. Dollars are net obligations (the sum of each transaction's federalActionObligation, de-obligations included), not outlays.
Frequently asked questions
Answers are computed from FPDS-NG transactions distributed via USAspending.gov. Figures reflect the most recent SmartSync run, refreshed every six hours.
- How does GovChime compute federal spending trends?
- GovChime aggregates the federalActionObligation field from FPDS-NG prime-contract transactions distributed through USAspending.gov, grouped by federal fiscal period (yearly, quarterly, or monthly). Each bar reflects the net of obligations and deobligations for the period. Total obligations for FY2022–FY2026 were $3795.09B. The series is computed at yearly granularity and refreshes approximately every six hours from the SmartSync pipeline.
- How is the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculated?
- CAGR uses the formula (end value / start value) ^ (1 / number of years) − 1, computed over completed federal fiscal years only. The current in-progress FY is excluded because year-to-date figures would understate the CAGR by mixing a partial period with full ones. Federal fiscal years run October 1 through September 30, named after the ending calendar year. Zero-dollar years (typical for narrowly filtered slices) are dropped before the calculation.
- Why is FY2027 shorter than prior years on the chart?
- The U.S. federal fiscal year runs October 1 through September 30 and is named after the ending calendar year — FY2027 covers October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027. Whenever the selected range includes the in-progress fiscal year, that bar is year-to-date through October 14, 2026. Prior fiscal years on the same chart are complete. To make like-for-like comparisons against earlier periods, exclude the current FY or compare the same YTD window across years.
- Why is FY2026 labelled provisional?
- FY2026 ended on September 30, 2026, but the Department of Defense publishes the contracts it both funds and awards about 90 days after signature, so DoD awards signed after July 16, 2026 are withheld at the source and not yet in FPDS-NG. GovChime labels a completed fiscal year provisional until 120 days after it ends; FY2026 totals, and any growth rate ending in FY2026, will rise as those awards are published.
- What does "Total Obligations" include and exclude?
- Total Obligations sums federalActionObligation across all prime-contract transactions in the selected range, net of deobligations (negative modifications). It excludes grants and cooperative agreements (FABS), direct financial assistance, sub-awards (FFATA File F), federal salaries, mandatory spending, and Treasury outlays — those are tracked in separate federal data feeds. Obligations are legally binding commitments at contract signing, not cash actually disbursed; outlays are reported separately by Treasury.
- Can I narrow the trend to one industry, state, agency, or set-aside?
- Yes, when signed in. The filter panel above the chart accepts NAICS codes (2- to 6-digit), state codes, departments, sub-tier agencies, and set-aside program codes. Filters are applied additively (AND logic across dimensions, OR within a dimension) and the active filter set is reflected in pills above the chart. Save a filter combination using the Save Search action so the same scoped trend can be re-opened later. All filters narrow the same FPDS-NG transaction base.
- What is the earliest available fiscal year on Spending Trends?
- FY2003 (October 1, 2002 through September 30, 2003) is the earliest fiscal year GovChime publishes for prime-contract spending trends. Earlier fiscal years exist on FPDS-NG but coverage is incomplete and not consistently structured for time-series aggregation. The year multi-select control caps at 2003 to prevent comparisons against partial pre-FY2003 data. For pre-FY2003 historical context, refer directly to the underlying USAspending.gov advanced search.
About federal spending trend data
Federal prime-contract obligations plotted over time, at monthly, quarterly or yearly frequency, sourced from FPDS-NG through USAspending.gov. Trend data answers questions a single-year snapshot cannot: whether an agency's buying is growing or contracting, how sharply obligations spike in the fourth quarter as agencies spend down expiring budget authority, and whether a market you are entering is expanding fast enough to support a new entrant. Year-over-year change and compound annual growth rate are computed only across completed fiscal years, because a partial current year would otherwise read as a collapse in spending. The federal fiscal year runs October through September, so FY2026 began in October 2025 — comparing federal spending on a calendar-year basis misaligns every quarter and misstates the seasonal pattern entirely. Use the frequency control to move between a strategic multi-year view and the month-level detail that reveals when in the year a specific agency actually obligates its money.